Beating Sportsbooks with an Edge
Finding value and consistently creating a structured strategy to exploit market inefficiencies is the key to long-term profitability in sports betting. This is easier said than done, but is one of the most essential concepts for advanced bettors. This is where sharp bettors make their money, by spotting mispriced odds or market opportunities that others overlook.
In this article, we’ll break down how to find edges in sports betting, from understanding devigging to arbitrage betting and middles, and how to specialize in niche markets like props, smaller leagues, and futures. We’ll also cover building a structured, disciplined betting strategy that sets you up for long-term success.
What is an Edge in Sports Betting, and How Do You Find One?
An edge in sports betting refers to finding mispriced odds or inefficiencies in the market that give you an advantage over the sportsbook. You have an edge if you find value that the market has not priced correctly.
What is an Edge?
An edge is an advantage that allows you to bet on outcomes with a higher probability of success than the odds suggest. In other words, it’s finding opportunities where the odds offered by sportsbooks don’t reflect the true probability of an event occurring.
How Do You Find an Edge?
Market Inefficiencies: These occur when sportsbooks misprice odds due to public bias, injury reports, or market overreactions. Identifying these inefficiencies allows you to place +EV (positive expected value) bets.
Data and Models: Use historical performance data, team stats, player analytics, and advanced models to find patterns that sportsbooks might not see. These models help you spot inefficiencies early.
Understanding the Market: Public bettors are unfamiliar with which books are sharper than others. Some books are better than others at making lines in specific markets, and knowing where to look is a great way to get an edge.
Example: If the market is overvaluing injury news, you can find an edge by betting on the under at better odds than the true probability would suggest.
What is Devigging?
Devigging is the strategy of reducing the vig on each bet. By devigging, bettors can increase their betting edge by getting better odds with a lower vig, ultimately increasing their profit potential over time.
Why Devigging Matters:
Vig is the commission that sportsbooks take from each bet. The higher the vig, the less profit a bettor makes over time. By focusing on devigging, bettors can maximize their long-term profits by betting on lines with lower vig.
Lower vig means better odds, which increases your chances of consistently beating the market and achieving positive expected value (EV).
How to Devig:
Shop for the Best Lines: The easiest way to devig is by finding sportsbooks that offer lower vig (e.g., -105 odds instead of -110). This reduces the cost of betting and increases your expected return.
Use one of the four Devig Methods: The multiplicative, Additive, shin, and power methods are different ways to devig. Choosing the right option depends on your betting strategy and the market you are attacking.
Example: If you find a sportsbook that offers -105 odds instead of the usual -110, you save 5 cents per bet. Throughout a season, this small change can add up to substantial savings and increased profitability.
What Are Arbitrage & Middles?
Arbitrage (arb) betting and middle betting are strategies advanced bettors use to lock in guaranteed profits by betting on situations within an event across multiple sportsbooks. Both strategies are about finding discrepancies in lines and odds to guarantee a positive return regardless of the outcome.
Arbitrage Betting (Arbing):
Arbitrage involves placing bets on different sides of the same event across different sportsbooks where the odds differ significantly. By doing this, you’re guaranteeing a profit no matter what the outcome is, as the odds discrepancy covers all scenarios.
Middle Betting:
Middle betting involves placing opposite bets (e.g., spread bets) in hopes that the final score lands in the “middle,” where both bets win. This creates a win-win scenario if the final result lands between the lines you’ve bet on.
Example: If you place a $100 bet on the Chiefs moneyline at -110 at one sportsbook and $100 on the Cowboys moneyline +110 at another, you are guaranteed a profit no matter who wins.
Finding Edges in Sports Betting Markets: Niche
Specializing in niche markets allows bettors to find better value because these markets are often less efficient. By focusing on smaller leagues, player props, and niche bets, you can capitalize on mispriced odds that the general public and sportsbooks might overlook.
Why Specialize to Find an Edge?
Betting on your favorite football team is a difficult way to make money. In order to find value, you need to dig deeper than the public, popular events going on.
Smaller leagues, player props, and niche bets often have better value because they receive less betting volume, and sportsbooks don’t have the same resources dedicated to setting accurate lines.
Specializing allows you to become an expert in specific areas, giving you an edge in identifying opportunities that casual bettors might miss.
How to Specialize to Find Edges in Sports Betting
Specializing in finding edges is difficult, but it can change everything if you begin to employ this strategy.
Research Smaller Leagues: Develop expertise in smaller sports (e.g., soccer leagues, tennis, esports) and identify inefficiencies in the odds.
Focus on a Specific Player Prop: Player props are often mispriced. Specializing in a specific prop type allows you to find better betting value.
Track Niche Markets: Use advanced statistical models and data analytics to track value in futures, exotic bets, and less popular sports.
Example: If you notice that a European basketball team has been averaging more points than the sportsbooks offer in over/under props, you can place a +EV bet on the over, taking advantage of market inefficiency on this small market.
Building a Structured, Disciplined Betting Strategy
The foundation of any successful bettor is a structured and disciplined strategy. This ensures that you make rational, data-driven decisions rather than relying on emotion or impulsive choices.
Why Discipline is Key to Finding Edges
We covered this earlier in the course, but now that we have more context, it's time to begin applying what you have learned so far.
Sticking to your plan and following a clear strategy helps you avoid impulsive betting, keep your emotions in check, and maximize long-term profitability.
How to Build Your Strategy:
Strategies will differ from bettor to bettor, but having a roadmap for your sports betting goals is important.
Define Your Goals: What do you want to achieve? Whether it’s ROI, CLV, or betting volume, a clear goal will guide your betting decisions.
Set a Bet Size: Establish a bet sizing strategy that suits your bankroll and protects you from large swings in your results.
Evaluate Bet Efficiency: Constantly assess your bets to ensure they are efficient (i.e., beating the closing line and offering +EV).
Example: A sharp bettor might set a goal of hitting a 5% return on investment and track their performance and closing line value. They will use this data to adjust their strategy and bet size accordingly.
