Money Line Betting Explained: The Simplest Bet in Sports
Moneyline betting is straightforward: pick the winner. The odds determine how much you win.
By
Eric Pauly
Feb 6, 2026
0 min read
What Is Moneyline Betting?
Moneyline betting is the most basic form of sports wagering. You pick which team or player will win. No point spreads, no totals, no adjustments. If your selection wins the game, your bet wins. The odds attached to each side indicate how much you'll win relative to your stake. Favorites have negative odds (you risk more than you win), and underdogs have positive odds (you win more than you risk).
Despite its simplicity, moneyline betting requires strategic thinking. Favorites win more often, but the payout doesn't always compensate for the price you're paying. Underdogs lose more often, but when they hit, the returns can be substantial. Over thousands of bets across multiple sports, I've found that the most profitable moneyline approach isn't betting every favorite or chasing every underdog. It's identifying where the price is wrong relative to the actual probability. This guide explains how moneylines work, how to evaluate them, and when each side offers value.
article Summary
Moneyline betting is picking the winner of a game. Negative odds indicate favorites, positive odds indicate underdogs. The implied probability from the odds should be compared to your assessment of the true win probability. Value exists when the odds are better than the actual chance of winning, regardless of whether you're betting favorites or underdogs.
How Moneyline Odds Work
Negative Odds (Favorites)
A negative moneyline like -200 means you need to risk $200 to win $100 profit. The larger the negative number, the heavier the favorite. A -500 favorite is considered extremely likely to win, so the payout for backing them is small. You're essentially betting that the expected outcome happens. Favorites at -150 or shorter are common in most sports, and the vig built into these lines means you need them to win at a high rate to profit.
Positive Odds (Underdogs)
A positive moneyline like +200 means a $100 bet returns $300 total ($200 profit plus stake). The larger the positive number, the bigger the underdog. A +500 underdog is considered unlikely to win, but when they do, the payout is substantial. Underdog betting is about finding spots where the probability of winning is higher than the odds suggest. You don't need underdogs to win most of the time, just often enough to overcome the implied probability.
Even Money
When a game is considered a toss-up, you'll see odds around -110 on each side or occasionally +100 (even money). The -110/-110 split reflects the vig; a true 50/50 would be +100 on both sides, but the sportsbook takes their cut. Close matchups where neither team is favored often provide the best value opportunities because small edges can swing the math in your favor.
Implied Probability and Finding Value
Converting Odds to Probability
Every moneyline implies a probability. For -150, the implied probability is 150/(150+100) = 60%. For +130, it's 100/(130+100) = 43.5%. The total implied probability (60% + 43.5% = 103.5%) exceeds 100% because of the vig. The gap between 100% and the total is the sportsbook's margin. Understanding this math is foundational to evaluating whether a moneyline offers value.
Comparing to Your Assessment
If you believe the Yankees have a 55% chance of winning but the odds imply 60%, the Red Sox are the value play at +130. If you believe the Yankees have a 65% chance, the -150 is fair or even good value. Every moneyline bet should involve this comparison: what does the line imply, and what do I believe the true probability is? Without this framework, you're just guessing which team will win without considering whether the price is right.
No Vig Lines for Reference
Sharp sportsbooks like Pinnacle offer the most efficient lines. Removing their vig gives you a "true" probability to compare against recreational sportsbooks. If Pinnacle's no-vig line implies a team has a 58% chance and your local sportsbook's odds imply only 55%, you've found value. Tools that calculate betting edge often use sharp lines as their benchmark for exactly this purpose.
Moneyline Strategies
Avoid Huge Favorites
Betting -300 or heavier favorites requires them to win at extremely high rates to be profitable. At -300, you need to win 75% of the time just to break even. Even slight underestimations of upset probability can destroy profitability. I've tracked my results on heavy favorites over multiple seasons, and the ROI has been consistently negative despite a high win rate. The math simply doesn't work unless you're identifying genuine 80%+ favorites priced at 75%.
Underdog Value in Close Games
Games projected to be close (spreads of 3 or less in football, for example) often offer underdog moneyline value. The underdog might be +150 despite having a 40% chance of winning outright. That's a +EV bet. Close games feature more variance, and the favorite isn't as likely to win as the casual bettor might assume. Targeting underdogs in competitive matchups has been one of my more consistent edges.
Parlaying Favorites Carefully
Some bettors parlay heavy favorites to increase returns, turning three -200 moneylines into a +172 parlay. This can work, but you're still paying vig on each leg, and any single upset busts the parlay. If you're going to parlay favorites, keep it to 2-3 legs and ensure each leg offers individual value. Don't parlay for the sake of a better payout. Our parlays explained guide covers when this strategy makes sense.
Sport-Specific Moneyline Considerations
Baseball: Moneyline Is King
MLB betting centers on moneylines rather than run lines (spreads) because baseball games are often decided by 1-2 runs. The moneyline captures the full range of outcomes without requiring a specific margin. Starting pitchers heavily influence lines, so paying attention to probable pitchers and lineup changes is essential. Baseball moneylines can swing dramatically the day of the game based on late scratches.
Football: Spreads Dominate, but Moneylines Have a Role
Most NFL and college football betting focuses on spreads, but moneylines matter in close games and teasers. Underdog moneylines can offer excellent value when the spread is 3 or less. A team getting +3 on the spread might be +150 on the moneyline, and if you believe they'll compete, that plus-money can be more attractive than laying points.
Basketball: Totals and Spreads Are Sharper
NBA moneylines can be expensive because favorites often carry heavy juice. The spread market is usually more efficient and offers better value. However, underdog moneylines in playoff games or rivalry matchups can offer spots where the public overvalues the favorite. Use moneylines strategically in basketball rather than as your default bet.
Final Thoughts
Moneyline betting is the foundation of sports wagering. Pick the winner, and if they win, you win. But that simplicity can be deceptive. The odds are where the complexity lives. Understanding implied probability, comparing it to your own assessment, and consistently shopping for the best price are what separate profitable moneyline bettors from recreational ones.
If you're betting moneylines regularly, track your results by price range. You might find you're profitable on +100 to +200 underdogs but losing on -300 favorites. That data helps you focus your action where you actually have edge. Use odds comparison tools to shop every moneyline, because even 10 cents of extra value on a consistent basis adds up over a season. For more on finding value in any betting market, check out our EV betting guide.
Moneyline Betting FAQ
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