Point Spread Meaning: What Spreads Are and How They Work
The point spread creates balanced betting by handicapping the favorite with a margin requirement.
By
Eric Pauly
Feb 6, 2026
0 min read
What Does Point Spread Mean?
The point spread is a number set by sportsbooks to level the playing field between two teams of different strengths. The favorite must win by more than the spread to cover, while the underdog can lose by less than the spread (or win outright) and still win the bet. If the Chiefs are -6.5 favorites, they need to win by 7 or more for bets on them to cash. The Broncos at +6.5 can lose by up to 6 points and still cover.
Spreads exist because moneyline betting on heavy favorites produces lopsided odds. If a team has an 80% chance of winning, a straight moneyline bet might pay -400. That's expensive and creates unbalanced action. The spread transforms that same game into a closer decision, typically offering -110 odds on each side. After betting spreads for years, I've come to understand that the spread isn't predicting how much a team will win by. It's setting a number that attracts equal betting on both sides while accounting for the sportsbook's margin. This guide explains exactly what spreads mean and how to bet them effectively.
article Summary
The point spread is a margin of victory that the favorite must exceed for bets on them to win. It levels the betting market by handicapping the stronger team. Spreads are set to attract balanced action, not to predict exact margins. Understanding key numbers, line movement, and how to shop for the best number are essential to profitable spread betting.
How Point Spreads Work
Favorite vs. Underdog
The favorite is marked with a negative number (e.g., -7). This team must win by more than 7 points for spread bets on them to cash. The underdog is marked with a positive number (e.g., +7). This team can lose by up to 6 points and still cover, or they can win outright. The spread effectively gives the underdog a head start before the game begins.
Covering the Spread
"Covering" means the team met the spread requirement. If the Chiefs are -7 and win 28-20, they covered (won by 8). If they win 28-21, they did not cover (won by exactly 7, which would be a push). The Broncos at +7 would cover in both scenarios with a 28-21 score but not with 28-20. Covering is the terminology bettors use to describe whether a spread bet won.
Standard Odds and Pushes
Spreads typically carry -110 odds on both sides, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. When the final margin matches the spread exactly, the bet is a push, and your stake is returned. Sportsbooks often use half-point spreads (-6.5, -7.5) to eliminate pushes and ensure a definitive outcome. Understanding how vig works helps you evaluate whether the standard -110 is a fair price.
How Spreads Are Set and Why They Move
Opening Lines
Sportsbooks set opening spreads based on power ratings, historical data, and projections. Sharp books like Pinnacle and Circa often post lines first, and recreational books follow. The opening line represents the market maker's best estimate of a fair spread, but it's also designed to attract betting action. Once bets start flowing, the line adjusts based on where the money goes.
Line Movement
If heavy action comes in on one side, sportsbooks move the spread to encourage betting on the other side. A spread that opens at -3 might move to -3.5 or -4 if most money is on the favorite. Sharp bettors (professionals with winning records) often move lines early, while public bettors tend to bet closer to game time. Tracking line movement can reveal where smart money is landing.
Reverse Line Movement
Sometimes the line moves opposite to where the majority of bets are placed. If 70% of bets are on the favorite but the line moves from -6 to -5.5, that's reverse line movement. It signals that the 30% on the underdog includes large bets from respected accounts. Sportsbooks adjust to limit their exposure to sharp action, not to balance the number of bets. This concept is key to understanding sharp sports betting.
Key Numbers in Point Spreads
Football: 3 and 7
In NFL and college football, games most frequently end with margins of 3 (field goal) and 7 (touchdown). Over decades of data, roughly 15% of NFL games end with a margin of exactly 3, and about 9% end at exactly 7. These "key numbers" make spreads like -3, +3, -7, and +7 particularly significant. Moving from -2.5 to -3 or from -7 to -7.5 changes the outcome of a substantial percentage of games.
Why Half Points Matter
Getting -2.5 instead of -3 turns pushes into wins and some losses into pushes. Over a season of betting, that half-point difference can swing your results by several percentage points. This is why line shopping is so critical in spread betting. A half-point on a key number is worth paying attention to every single time.
Basketball: No Key Numbers
Basketball scores are higher and margins more distributed, so there are no equivalent key numbers. A 7-point margin happens about as often as an 8 or 9-point margin. The importance of half-points is lower in basketball, though getting the best number still matters over volume. Focus more on game context and matchup analysis than on specific spread thresholds.
Strategies for Betting Spreads
Shop Every Spread
Different sportsbooks offer different spreads. One might have a team at -6 while another has -6.5. OddsJam and Pick The Odds display spreads across dozens of sportsbooks so you can find the best number instantly. This habit takes seconds and meaningfully improves long-term results. Never bet a spread without checking what else is available.
Bet Early or Bet Late (Pick One)
Sharp bettors often bet early to capture soft opening lines before the market corrects. Recreational bettors often bet late, after injury news and public sentiment have shaped the line. Either approach can work, but mixing them leads to inconsistent results. If you're betting early, understand you're trading on your own analysis against a less efficient market. If you're betting late, you're getting the most information but potentially worse numbers.
Don't Chase Steam Moves
When a line moves quickly due to sharp action, it's tempting to chase the move and bet the side that just got hit. But by the time you react, the value may already be gone. Steam moves indicate where sharps bet, but the new number might be fair or even overadjusted. Develop your own opinions rather than following line moves after the fact.
Final Thoughts
The point spread is the most popular bet type in American sports for good reason: it creates competitive markets for games between unevenly matched teams. Understanding what the spread means, how it's set, and why it moves gives you a foundation for approaching every game with an informed perspective rather than just picking who you think will win.
Consistent spread betting success comes from discipline. Shop every line. Know the key numbers in football. Track your results by spread range to understand where you're finding edge. Over time, you'll develop intuition for when a spread offers value and when the market has priced a game correctly. For a deeper look at spread betting strategy, check out our full spread betting guide and explore the tools that help you compare lines.
Point Spread FAQ
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