How to Make Money Sports Betting
In sports betting, it’s easy to fall into the trap of thinking that the more you win, the more money you’ll make. But the truth is, win rate alone is not the best indicator of your betting success. The most important concept for long-term profitability is Expected Value (EV) and Closing Line Value (CLV).
Many bettors make the mistake of betting on popular teams or sticking with betting strategies that only focus on winning individual bets. In reality, EV is what separates long-term winners from the rest. A bettor with a solid +EV strategy can have a lower win rate but still make more money over time, because they are focusing on value and process rather than just outcomes.
Why Winning More Bets Doesn’t Always Mean Making Money
Many beginners mistakenly believe that a high win rate equates to profitability. However, in sports betting, you can win 60% of your bets but still lose money in the long run if you do not win enough of those bets over the breakeven win rate.
The Fallacy of Win Rate:
A higher win rate does not guarantee profit if the odds of the bets you’re making are not favorable. For instance, if you consistently win bets at –110 odds, and win 51% of the time, you are losing, and your return on investment (ROI) will be negative. Conversely, if you won 50% of your bets at +110, you’d have a positive ROI even though you lost more.
What Really Matters:
What truly impacts profitability is expected value (EV), not win rate. If you consistently place +EV bets and beat the market, you’ll see positive returns in the long run, even if your win rate is lower than 50%.
Example: If you win 55% of your bets at -110 odds, you’re profitable in the long run, while winning 60% of your bets at -150 odds might result in a net loss. It’s about finding value in the odds, not just winning individual bets.
The Math Behind Expected Value (EV) Explained Simply
Let’s break down the math behind EV simply and practically. Understanding EV helps you evaluate whether a bet will likely be profitable over the long term.
What is Expected Value (EV)?
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you expect to win or lose per bet, based on the odds and probability of the outcome. This core concept helps smart bettors determine if a bet is worth placing. The formula is:
EV = (Probability of Winning) x (Payout) - (Probability of Losing) x (Amount Bet)
Positive EV (+EV) vs. Negative EV (-EV):
+EV Bets: When your calculated EV is positive, the bet offers value. Over time, +EV bets will lead to profit.
-EV Bets: When your calculated EV is negative, the bet will likely lose money over time. These are bets you should generally avoid.
Why It’s Important: Understanding EV allows you to identify better bets and understand that betting on your favorite teams or players will not lead to a positive ROI.
Later in this course, we will discuss how to make your expected value projections. It’s important to remember that if a bet does not satisfy the expected value necessary for long-term profit, the recommended bet size is $0.
Example: If you place a $100 bet on a +150 moneyline, the expected value of that bet is $150 if you win, minus the $100 you risk, and the probability of winning at those odds will determine whether this bet has a positive or negative EV.
How to Find +EV Bets and Avoid Negative EV Traps
Finding +EV bets is the key to long-term betting profitability. These bets offer value over time, while negative EV bets will drain your bankroll.
How to Spot +EV Bets:
Calculate the EV: Always calculate the EV of your bets to assess whether they offer value. If the probability of winning a bet is greater than the implied probability from the odds, it’s a +EV bet.
Shop for the Best Odds: The odds you bet at will directly affect your EV. Line shopping across sportsbooks to find the best price increases your EV by ensuring you get the best odds possible.
Common Negative EV Traps:
Chasing High Payouts: Bets like parlays and teasers may seem tempting due to their higher payouts, but they often have negative EV because they increase the overall risk.
Betting on Overpriced Favorites: Be cautious when betting on heavily favored teams. These bets are often mispriced and have a negative EV because the odds don’t reflect the true probability of a team winning.
Example: Betting on a -300 favorite may seem like a safe bet, but the odds are so skewed in the book’s favor that the EV of that bet is negative. You’d need to win 75% of the time to break even consistently, and you'd need to have an edge in the first place.
Why Long-Term Profit Comes from Finding Consistently +EV Opportunities
The key to long-term profitability in sports betting is finding consistently +EV opportunities. It’s about creating a sustainable betting strategy that builds a process, not just the result of each bet.
Why Consistency is Key:
Small Edges Add Up: Even small +EV edges can generate significant profits. The more consistently you can find these bets, the more likely you will come out ahead in the long run.
Avoiding Market Noise: Staying focused on finding value in the odds rather than getting distracted by market noise or popular bets will increase your chances of success.
How to Build a +EV Betting Strategy:
Track Your Bets: Record your bets and their EV to identify which bet types are consistently profitable.
Adapt Your Strategy: As you find more +EV bets, refine your strategy to focus on the most profitable markets.
Building a +EV strategy is not easy, and there are many tools out there to help you. It is recommended that you begin to understand these concepts before diving in with a paid tool. When you are ready to pay, you will be much more confident and have a higher ROI potential.
Example: Imagine consistently placing +EV bets on spread bets at -110 odds, hitting 55% of the time. Over 1,000 bets, you’ll make a profit based on the EV, even if you don’t win every bet.
