Head to Head Betting: A Complete Guide to Moneyline Wagers
Head-to-head betting is the simplest form of sports wagering. Learn how moneyline odds work, when to bet H2H, and how to spot value in winner markets.
By
Eric Pauly
Feb 2, 2026
6 min read
What Is Head-to-Head Betting?
Head-to-head betting is the most straightforward wager in sports: pick who wins. No point spreads, no totals, no props. You choose a side, and if that team or player wins the game or match, your bet cashes. It is also called moneyline betting, and it is the foundation every other bet type builds on.
Despite being simple to understand, head-to-head betting has more depth than most bettors realize. The odds attached to each side tell you exactly how the market views the matchup, and finding spots where those odds are wrong is where the real money is. This guide covers how moneyline odds work, how H2H betting applies across different sports, when it makes sense over spread betting, and how real time odds comparison tools help you find mispriced moneylines. If you are new to reading betting lines, our guide on the line in sports betting explained is a solid starting point.
article Summary
Head-to-head (moneyline) betting means picking the outright winner of a game or match. Favorites carry negative odds (you risk more to win less) and underdogs carry positive odds (you risk less to win more). H2H betting works across all major sports and often provides better value than spread betting, especially on underdogs and in low-scoring sports.
How Moneyline Odds Work in Head-to-Head Betting
Favorites and Underdogs
Every head-to-head market has two sides: the favorite and the underdog. The favorite is the team or player expected to win, shown with a minus sign. The underdog is expected to lose, shown with a plus sign. American odds express how much you win relative to a $100 baseline. A -150 favorite means you risk $150 to win $100. A +130 underdog means you risk $100 to win $130.
One thing that consistently stands out after comparing moneylines across a dozen sportsbooks every week is how differently they price the same matchup. On a recent NFL Sunday, I saw the same underdog listed at +155 at one book and +175 at another. That is a massive difference on a straight winner bet, and it is exactly why line shopping matters for head-to-head bettors.
Calculating Moneyline Payouts
For favorites (negative odds), divide 100 by the absolute value of the odds and multiply by your stake. A $50 bet on a -200 favorite returns $25 in profit ($50 x 100/200). For underdogs (positive odds), divide the odds by 100 and multiply by your stake. A $50 bet at +200 returns $100 profit ($50 x 200/100). In both cases, you also get your original stake back.
Understanding the implied probability behind these odds is critical. A -200 favorite implies a 66.7% win probability. A +200 underdog implies a 33.3% win probability. Those implied percentages always add up to more than 100% because of the sportsbook's margin, known as the vig or juice built into every betting line. Recognizing that gap is how you start identifying value.
When Odds Move and Why It Matters
Moneyline odds shift based on betting action, injury news, and market corrections. If a line opens at -130 and moves to -160, that means sharp money or heavy volume has come in on the favorite. For head-to-head bettors, catching a line before it moves can be the difference between a +EV bet and a neutral one. Tools that track real-time odds across sportsbooks help you spot these movements before the value disappears.
Head-to-Head Betting Across Different Sports
Football and Basketball (NFL, NBA, College)
In high-scoring sports like football and basketball, spreads tend to get more action than moneylines. But head-to-head betting still has its place, especially with underdogs. When I bet the moneyline on NFL underdogs of 3 points or fewer, I often find better expected value than taking the spread, because the market overprices short favorites. A team listed as a 2.5-point underdog at +125 on the moneyline only needs to win outright. If your analysis says they win 45% of the time, that is a strong value play at those odds.
For the NBA, moneyline underdogs can also offer value on back-to-back games, early-season matchups, and divisional rivalry games where home court and motivation factors get underweighted by the market.
Baseball (MLB)
Baseball is a moneyline sport. Point spreads exist (run lines), but most serious MLB bettors focus on head-to-head markets because the sport's scoring is low and unpredictable enough that any team can win on any given night. A +140 underdog in baseball with a strong starting pitcher can offer excellent value. The gap between the best and worst teams in MLB is smaller than in football or basketball, which means underdogs cash more frequently.
Tennis and Golf (Individual Matchups)
Head-to-head betting is the default in individual sports. Tennis matches are moneyline only (aside from set and game spreads). Golf offers head-to-head matchup props where you pick which of two golfers will finish higher in a tournament round or overall. In my experience with golf H2H matchups, the edges can be significant because sportsbooks spend less time modeling individual pairings than they do team-sport markets. These markets tend to be softer and slower to adjust.
Head-to-Head Betting vs. Spread Betting
When to Bet the Moneyline
Moneyline betting makes more sense than spread betting in several situations. First, when you like an underdog: you only need them to win, not cover a spread. That is a simpler, cleaner bet. Second, in low-scoring sports like baseball, hockey, and soccer where a single run or goal can be the margin. Third, when the spread is a key number (like 3 or 7 in football) and the moneyline offers a better risk/reward profile than laying points.
Spread betting makes more sense when you like a heavy favorite and want to reduce the juice. Betting a -300 moneyline favorite is expensive relative to the return, whereas laying -7 at -110 gives you better odds on the same side. The choice between moneyline and spread comes down to the specific odds, your conviction level, and the sport.
The Value Case for Moneyline Underdogs
Head-to-head underdog betting is one of the more overlooked edges in sports betting. Public money tends to gravitate toward favorites, which can push underdog moneylines to prices that overstate the gap between the two sides. A team that the market says wins 35% of the time might actually win 40% of the time, and at +175 odds, that 5-percentage-point gap translates to significant long-term profit. Finding value in sports betting markets often starts with moneylines that the public has pushed out of alignment.
Finding Value in Head-to-Head Markets
Compare Odds Across Multiple Sportsbooks
The simplest way to improve your head-to-head betting results is to shop your lines. Moneyline odds vary more between sportsbooks than spreads do, because the payout structure is different. A moneyline that is +145 at one book and +165 at another represents a real difference in expected value. Line shopping apps make this comparison instant instead of requiring you to manually check each sportsbook.
Use Tools to Identify Mispriced Moneylines
OddsJam scans 40+ sportsbooks in real time and flags moneylines where the odds are better than the market's true probability suggests. When I am scanning for H2H value on a Sunday morning, OddsJam's EV filter is the first place I look. It highlights moneyline bets across NFL, NBA, MLB, and more where the edge percentage is above your threshold. Read our full OddsJam review for a deeper look.
Outlier takes a similar approach at a fraction of the cost ($19.99/mo compared to OddsJam's $199.99/mo). It includes arbitrage detection, +EV indicators, and odds comparison across major books. For bettors focused on moneyline value, Outlier surfaces mispriced H2H lines efficiently. Check out our Outlier review.
Pick The Odds offers real-time odds comparison with EV and arbitrage scanning at $120/mo, landing between OddsJam and Outlier in both price and feature depth. Its speed is a notable strength for bettors who want to catch moneyline value windows before they close. See our Pick The Odds review.
Track Your Moneyline Results
If you are betting moneylines consistently, tracking your results by sport, odds range, and bet type helps you understand where your edge actually is. Bet tracking apps let you log every wager and break down your ROI over time. You might find that your NFL underdog moneyline bets are profitable while your NBA favorite moneylines are break-even. That data tells you where to focus and where to pull back.
Final Thoughts
Head-to-head betting is where sports wagering starts, and for many sharp bettors, it is where the best value lives. The simplicity of "pick the winner" makes it accessible, but the real edge comes from understanding odds, shopping lines across sportsbooks, and identifying spots where the market has mispriced a side. Underdog moneylines in particular are consistently undervalued because public money gravitates toward favorites.
Whether you are betting NFL moneylines, MLB H2H, or tennis matchups, the process is the same: compare the implied probability to your own assessment, make sure you are getting the best available price, and track your results. Tools like OddsJam, Outlier, and Pick The Odds make that process faster and more precise. If you want to explore the full range of options, check out our guide to the best sports betting tools.
Head-to-Head Betting FAQ
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