Underdog Betting Strategy: How to Find a Good Price on a Dog
What the research says about betting underdogs, why long shots cost more, and the checks to run before you take plus money.
By
Eric Pauly
9 min read
Underdog Betting Strategy Starts With the Price
Leicester City won the 2015/16 Premier League at 5000/1, and every underdog bettor has heard some version of that story. It makes a great story and a poor plan. A sound underdog betting strategy has little to do with rooting for upsets. It comes down to one question: does this price pay more than the team's real chance of winning is worth?
When I first started betting, I treated every +200 as a bargain without checking what it implied. A dog is only a good bet at a number, and the same team can be worth betting at +165 and worth passing at +145. This guide covers what the research says about dogs, why long prices cost more, four checks to run before you bet, and how to size bets so the losing runs do not take you out.
article Summary
Betting underdogs is not profitable or unprofitable as a blanket rule. A dog has value only when its price beats a fair number, so devig a sharp line, shop every book you have, compare the moneyline to the points, and size down as the price gets longer.
Do Underdogs Make Money? What the Evidence Says
Not as a system. Blindly betting every dog means paying the book's margin on every ticket, and no broad rule has a lasting claim on beating that margin. Dogs win less often by design, and the higher payout is supposed to make up for it. Your job is finding the spots where the payout more than makes up for it.
The research is split by market
The favorite-longshot bias, the tendency for long shots to be overpriced, is well documented at the racetrack. It does not carry over cleanly to team sports. A 1994 Journal of Finance study of baseball moneylines found the bias running in reverse, with favorites the worse buy. Later work found a similar reverse pattern in NHL moneylines, then watched it fade as that market grew more efficient. The lesson is not that dogs are good or bad. It is that a pattern can vanish once the market catches on, so today's price is what deserves your attention.
Know what each price asks of you
Every plus-money number carries a breakeven win rate. It helps to think of dogs in three bands:
Short dogs (+100 to +150): break even at 50% down to 40%. Close to a coin flip, with the smallest swings.
Mid dogs (+150 to +300): break even at 40% down to 25%. Expect long cold stretches even with a real edge.
Long dogs (+300 and up): break even at 25% or lower. Margin tends to bite hardest here, and results take the longest to mean anything.
Why Betting Long Underdogs Can Cost More
Two prices can carry the same overall hold and still charge each side differently. When a book moves both sides of a line by the same number of cents, the dog's bettor often pays more than the favorite's.
Where the margin lands
Take three illustrative lines, each holding about 4%. The cost below assumes the fair price is known, and shows the expected loss per dollar bet on each side:
Fair +/-120, posted +110 / -130: dog loses about 4.5 cents, favorite about 3.5 cents.
Fair +/-200, posted +180 / -220: dog loses about 6.7 cents, favorite about 3 cents.
Fair +/-400, posted +350 / -450: dog loses about 10 cents, favorite about 2.2 cents.
Books do not always split a market this way, which is why you measure each price instead of assuming. But the pattern explains why a long dog at one soft book can be a far worse bet than it looks.
The same math works in your favor
Extra cents are worth more on the dog side. If +200 is fair, finding +210 earns about 3.3 cents per dollar. If -200 is fair, finding -190 earns about 1.8 cents. That is why I care so much about the number on a dog: a small gap between books can decide whether the bet is worth making at all.
A Four-Check Underdog Betting Strategy
The first thing I look at on a dog is how far the price sits from a sharp fair number. My opinion of the team comes after that. These four checks keep the order straight.
1. Get a fair price
Take both sides of a sharp market and run them through a no-vig odds calculator. That strips out the margin and leaves a probability you can compare against any price. Prop Professor does this at scale and lets you choose the devig method and which books feed the fair value, so you can see how much a dog's edge depends on the source. It is built first for prop and DFS bettors, and game lines are covered too. There is no free trial, monthly plans start at $49, and code BETSMART takes 25% off.
2. Shop the number
Check every account you hold. Gaps between books are a big part of whether a dog clears the fair price, so a second or third account can do more for you than another hour of handicapping.
3. Find a reason for the gap
When one book sits well above the market, ask why. It may be slow to react to news, or the market may know something it has not priced yet. Confirm the starting quarterback, pitcher, or goalie before you treat a big number as a gift.
4. Pick the right bet type
Before you lock in the moneyline, compare it to the points on the same team. The next section walks through that decision.
Underdog Moneyline or Points?
Taking the points lets you win when your team loses a close game. Taking the moneyline pays more, but only for an outright win. Neither is automatically stronger. Our moneyline vs spread breakdown covers the full comparison, so here is the dog-specific version.
When the moneyline tends to fit
Your read is that the dog wins the game, not just that it hangs around. A team with a big quarterback edge in a matchup the market undersells is a moneyline thought. The moneyline also tends to fit bigger dogs, where the payout grows quickly compared to what the points add.
When the points tend to fit
Your read is about margin, such as a slow, run-heavy game that should stay close. Key numbers matter here. In the NFL, 3 and 7 are the most common final margins, so a spread that crosses one of them buys more than a spread that does not.
Baseball and hockey
One run or one goal decides many of these games, so the moneyline is the main market, and the +1.5 run line or puck line is usually priced well into minus territory. Do the same breakeven math on both before choosing. A +1.5 at -180 asks you to be right 64.3% of the time.
Where Underdog Value Is Worth Looking For
None of these spots is a reason to bet on its own. They are places worth checking against a fair price.
Popular favorites
When a heavily followed team like the Cowboys or Lakers draws one-sided action, a book may shade the favorite and leave a little extra on the other side at some shops. Public betting numbers can point you to the game, but only the price comparison tells you whether the dog is worth it.
Late lineup news
A scratched starting pitcher, a goalie change, or a star ruled out moves the market fast, and some books move slower than others. When a favorite loses a key player, the dog's price at a slow book can sit above the fair number for a short window.
High-parity sports
NHL dogs win roughly four games in ten, and MLB favorites win a little under 60% of the time, compared with roughly one NFL dog in three. Most prices stay in the short to mid range, which means fewer brutal swings and smaller margin costs than long dogs carry.
Prediction markets
Price is the whole game with dogs, so it is worth comparing venues. Novig is a CFTC certified prediction market where you trade peer to peer, with prices set by other users rather than a house. Check the contract price against your sportsbook number before you commit.
Final Thoughts
An underdog is worth betting when the price beats its real chance of winning, and that is true whether it is +110 or +1000. On your next dog, get a fair number, shop it across your books, compare the moneyline to the points, and keep the stake small enough to survive the cold stretch. Then log the price you got against the close. Do that for a season and you will know far more about your underdog betting than your win total can tell you.
Three Underdog Habits to Drop
Fading the public by reflex. Being on the unpopular side does not change the math. If the price is worse than fair, it is still a bad bet.
Remembering the winners. A +400 cash sticks in your memory and the four losses before it do not. Your tracked record is the honest version.
Raising stakes to win it back. Long losing runs are normal at plus money. Pressing after one turns normal variance into real bankroll damage.
Underdog Betting Strategy FAQ
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