What Is EV in Sports Betting?
In sports betting, EV stands for expected value, a mathematical concept that shows whether a bet is profitable over time. While casual bettors focus on wins and losses, sharp bettors think in terms of value. Understanding EV sports betting is one of the biggest steps toward becoming a long-term winner.
Key Takeaways
Breaking down expected value
Why +EV matters
Expected value & ROI
Expected value summarized
What Does Expected Value Mean?
Expected value betting is about evaluating whether the potential payout of a bet is worth the risk based on the true probability of an outcome. Every bet you place has an EV-positive, negative, or neutral. Finding +EV spots and avoiding -EV spots is the goal.
EV Formula (Simplified)
EV = (Probability of Winning × Amount Won) - (Probability of Losing × Amount Lost)
If the result is positive, that’s a +EV bet. If it’s negative, the bet is expected to lose money in the long run, even if it wins sometimes.
Example
Example: Let’s say a coin flip pays you $110 if heads hits and you risk $100. Since it’s a 50/50 shot, the expected value is:
(0.5 × $110) - (0.5 × $100) = $55 - $50 = +EV of $5
This means, on average, you'd profit $5 every time you make that bet.
Why +EV Bets Are the Goal
The goal isn’t to win every bet. It's impossible. The goal is to consistently find +EV bets that beat the odds over time. These bets don’t always win, but they make money in the long run by offering better payouts than the risk warrants.
Value Bets and Implied Probability
Value bets occur when the implied probability of a line is lower than your projected probability. For example, if a team is listed at +200 (implied 33.3%), but you think they win 40% of the time, that’s a value play, and likely +EV.
+EV can be calculated in a few ways, and having the best means of calculating +EV will allow you to make the best bets possible whenever you place a bet.
Line Discrepancies
You can often find +EV opportunities when lines shift and not all sportsbooks are offering the same price. Tracking odds and understanding how the market reacts can help you stay ahead. You can get value by betting lines at rec books that have not moved compared to sharp books. This is the easiest way to get a better expected value when sports betting.
EV vs ROI in Betting
While EV is a theoretical calculation, ROI (Return on Investment) shows how well your betting is actually performing over time.
ROI Formula
ROI = (Profit ÷ Total Amount Wagered) × 100
If you’ve bet $1,000 and profited $100, your ROI is 10%. ROI helps measure performance, but EV is what guides decision-making.
Long-Term Edge and Sample Size
A single +EV bet might lose, and a -EV bet might win. That’s why long-term edge is the focus. Over hundreds or thousands of bets, EV helps smooth out variance and keep your strategy profitable.
Expected Value in Sports Betting
If you're serious about betting, learning EV sports betting is a must. It shifts your mindset from picking winners to identifying value bets with long-term upside. By focusing on +EV, tracking your ROI, and staying disciplined, you give yourself a real shot at building a lasting edge.
Final Thoughts
Finding +EV bets is the key to long-term betting profitability. These bets offer value over time, while negative EV bets will drain your bankroll.
Frequently asked questions
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