Sports Bets to Avoid and Sports Bets to Look For
In sports betting, there are such things as good bets and bad bets. While betting on parlays or teasers may seem exciting due to their higher payouts, these bets typically come with lower expected value. On the other hand, moneyline and spread bets are more efficient markets with high liquidity and sharper lines. Understanding which bet types are more or less efficient is essential for any intermediate bettor looking to sharpen their betting strategy.
Why Some Bet Types Are Sharper Than Others
Not every betting market is the same. Some betting markets are more efficient than others. For example, moneyline and spread bets have higher liquidity and take sharper action, making them more predictable and well-priced. Player prop bets are less efficient markets since there is less liquidity. Other bets like parlays and teasers often come with lower expected value.
Moneyline Bets:
Moneyline bets are straightforward wagers on the team that will win. These bet types are more efficient because the sharps and bookmarkers have molded the odds to reflect the actual probability of a team winning.
Point Spread Bets:
Point spread bets offer more efficient odds. They balance the playing field between two teams of unequal strength, and sportsbooks typically set these odds based on sharp action, making them more efficient, which makes them harder to beat, but also harder to lose quickly.
Player Prop Bets:
Player Prop bets are less efficient since the market has less liquidity. Sharp bettors attack prop bets, and these bets can often see wild line movement from open to close. Prop betting is becoming more popular, and so it is becoming more efficient, but it is exploitable.
Parlay & Teasers:
Parlays and teasers seem enticing because of their high payouts, but they are generally much harder to win. These bets combine multiple selections into a single bet, increasing the risk exponentially, and introducing more variance. Parlays compound your edge, so if you have no edge, you are compounding a losing number.
Example: If you place a bet on a moneyline at -110 odds, you must win 52.4% of the time to break even. However, a parlay with similar odds would require you to win much higher percentages since each additional leg creates more variance.
Why Parlays & Teasers Have Lower Expected Value
Parlays and teasers are often marketed as low-risk, high-reward bets, but they are harder to win and can quickly hamper your bankroll.
Parlays:
A parlay combines two or more bets into one wager. While the potential payout is higher, the chances of hitting all selections correctly are drastically reduced. Parlays compound the expected value of the individual legs, so you can compound negative value, which is bad for bettors.
Teasers:
A teaser allows you to adjust the point spread in your favor, but it’s still a multi-leg bet. Like parlays, teasers can have lower expected value because you combine multiple outcomes into one bet.
Why They Have Lower Expected Value:
Higher Vig: Both parlays and teasers come with higher vig, making them more expensive to bet on.
More Risk: You must win all parts of the bet, which means a higher failure rate.
Compounded Risk: Every leg of a parlay or teaser compounds the risk, making it harder to win consistently.
Example: If you bet on a parlay with three legs, the odds seem attractive, but the combined risk of losing any of the legs drastically lowers the chances of winning
Why Moneyline and Spread Bets Are More Efficient
Moneyline and spread bets are more efficient than bets like parlays and teasers for a few reasons.
Why They Are More Efficient:
Better Odds: The odds on spread and moneyline bets are more accurately priced, reflecting the true probability of outcomes.
Lower Risk: Unlike parlays, you don’t need to hit multiple legs to win.
Predictable Market Movement: Moneyline and spread lines move based on sharp action but are generally less volatile and easier to evaluate.
Bigger Limits: Since sportsbooks are willing to take more money on these bets, they also do their best to protect themselves.
Example: The Lakers may open as -3 favorites against the Knicks. Within an hour or so, the line could move to Lakers -2. This means sharp bettors bet the Knicks at -3 for a max bet, so the sportsbook moved the number.
Finding Inefficiencies in Player Props & Niche Markets
While player props and niche markets can be lucrative, they often come with higher vig and more volatility. However, if you know where to look, there is more value. Line shopping is crucial for making sure you always get the best number, so you win more or lose less on every bet you place.
Player Prop Bets:
Player props are bets placed on individual player performances (e.g., over/under on points, rebounds, etc.). These markets are often mispriced, and finding inefficiencies can lead to profitable opportunities. Props may not always be as efficiently priced as point spread or moneyline bets, which gives bettors a chance to find mispricing.
Niche Markets:
Niche markets like esports or minor league sports are generally less liquid, and sportsbooks may not always adjust odds quickly. This creates potential opportunities for sharp bettors who understand these markets and can find inefficiencies.
Example: If you bet on a player prop for a star player (e.g., LeBron James over 25 points), and the market hasn’t fully adjusted to recent trends (e.g., more minutes played or recent high performance), you may find that the odds are mispriced in your favor.
