Sportsbooks, Breakeven Percentages, and Line Shopping
The simplest way to make good bets is by line shopping. Line shopping is comparing odds across different sportsbooks to ensure you’re getting the best odds, which can ultimately increase your long-term profitability, whether you're betting on a moneyline, spread, prop or total, every half-point and extra few cents of value matters long term.
Recreational Sportsbooks vs. Sharp Sportsbooks vs. Exchanges
Not all sportsbooks run their business the same way. When you're line shopping, it’s essential to understand the differences between recreational sportsbooks, sharp sportsbooks, and betting exchanges. Each of these platforms influences odds differently and provides varying levels of value depending on the type of bet you're placing.
Recreational Sportsbooks
These are mainstream sportsbooks aimed at the average bettor. They typically offer standard odds, and their lines are designed for general appeal, catering to casual bettors. These books are often more flexible and can adjust odds to attract more action, but the odds typically have a higher vig (juice).
Sharp Sportsbooks
Sharp sportsbooks are designed for professional bettors or sharp bettors. They offer more accurate odds, which are generally more efficient because they are molded by sharp money. These books make the market.
Betting Exchanges
Betting exchanges are platforms where you can bet against other bettors, rather than the sportsbook itself. The odds on these platforms can be dynamic and fluctuate based on users' activity, offering opportunities for better value. However, betting exchanges can be less liquid and may not provide the same variety of bet types as traditional sportsbooks.
Example: If you're betting on an NFL game and notice a significant line difference between a recreational sportsbook and a sharp sportsbook, you may want to bet the worse line on the recreational sportsbook.
How Line Shopping Increases Long-Term Profit
Line shopping can have a massive impact on your long-term profits and is the easiest way for any sports bettor to make a good bet. Finding the best possible odds ensures you get the most value from every bet.
Line Shopping Process
Line shopping involves comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks to get the best price. Even slight differences in odds, like half a point on a spread or a few cents on the moneyline, can have a massive impact on your bankroll over time.
Why Line Shopping Matters
When you lineshop, you win more money when your bet wins, or you lose less when your bet loses. These daily occurrences where you pick up profit or limit losses simply by betting the best available prices compound over time. The more you shop around and bet at the best price, the higher your chances of long-term profitability.
Example: If you bet on a moneyline at -110 on one sportsbook but find another sportsbook offering -105, that $5 difference per bet adds up throughout a season. Over 100 bets, that's an extra $500 in your pocket.
Calculating Breakeven Percentages on Bets
With sports betting, you cannot ignore the math, especially the basics. A breakeven percentage is the minimum win percentage you need to profit at the odds you’re betting.
What is a Breakeven Percentage?
With sports betting, you cannot ignore the math, especially the basics. A breakeven percentage is the minimum win percentage you need to profit at the odds you’re betting.
For Positive Odds (e.g., +150):
Breakeven Percentage = 100 / (Odds + 100)
Example: For +150 odds, breakeven percentage = 100 / (150 + 100) = 40%.
For Negative Odds (e.g., -120):
Breakeven Percentage = |Odds| / (|Odds| + 100)
Example: For -120 odds, breakeven percentage = 120 / (120 + 100) = 54.5%.
This means that to be profitable betting lines at +150, you must hit over 40% of your bets. With -120 odds, you need to hit over 54.5% of your bets to be profitable.
Why It’s Important: Knowing your breakeven percentage helps you assess the value of a bet. If your win percentage is lower than the breakeven percentage, you’re losing money over time.
Line Shopping Made Easy
Going app to app to check lines is a pain. The good news is that using the right tools and strategies can make your line shopping process quick and efficient.
Using Odds Comparison Tools
Odds comparison tools can quickly show you the best available odds for your bet without opening multiple websites. These tools automatically track line changes and present the most up-to-date options.
Live Odds & Notifications
Some betting apps send notifications when the odds change or a line moves in your favor, allowing you to place a bet at the best possible price before it shifts again.
Using Multiple Sportsbook Accounts
Having accounts at several sportsbooks allows you to compare odds in real-time, ensuring you always get the best price before placing your bet. This is the slowest way to do it, but if this is your only option, it is still recommended.
Example: If you use an odds comparison tool for NFL betting, you can instantly see which sportsbook offers the best odds for the moneyline, point spread, or totals, and place your bet without delay.
